Non ferrous Metals: trend and forecast
The latest edition of Scenari & Tendenze, (lit. Scenarios & Trends), which took place on 5th July 2022, has given food for thought to the participants by analysing the current complex economic dynamics.
As usual, this Circumstances Observatory organised by Confindustria Brescia and Camera di Commercio di Brescia (lit. The Chamber of Commerce of Brescia) has examined in depth also the scenario of the main markets of interest, among which that of non ferrous metals at the base of our bronze, aluminium bronze, and special-brass ingots.
So, what is the scenario for our industry during the first half of 2022? What is the future outlook? Let’s see it shortly.
Focus on non ferrous metal industry - Analysis up to 5th July 2022
Let’s dig deeper into the analysis provided by Scenari & Tendenze concerning the trend of the main non ferrous metals quoted on LME.
Mean of all non ferrous metals quoted on LME – Weekly averages (US$/MT)
- Average price: After an increasing trend (+43.4%), it is possible to see a significant fall in the mean price of 41%;
- The mean volumes have undergone a considerable decrease (-74.5%).
At this stage, there is a lowering trend. In such a kind of market, where quotations can undergo sudden variations, thus making speculation difficult, a potential increase in purchases could cause unexpected trend swings.
Aluminium - Weekly averages (US$/MT)
Aluminium is the most significant non ferrous metal among those quoted on LME. Its trend is similar to the mean analysed above:
- Price: starting from March 2022, the quotation has decreased (-32.8%), thus reaching the same levels observed in June 2021. Price may keep going this way;
- Stocks: a fall in volumes of 80.6% has occurred over the last year.
In such a thin market with this significant decrease in volumes who approaches it only for speculation issues is dissuaded for sure. Meanwhile, the trend of quotations toward these price levels not only sparks the interest of those who need to restore their stocks but should also push to see how to freeze prices.
Keep up to date with the price of aluminium: visit the page dedicated to the closing prices of the main non ferrous metals listed at the LME on our website.
Copper - Weekly averages (US$/MT)
This metal, essential in our production of copper based alloy ingots, is a significant indicator of the global economic trend. Let’s see how:
- Price: after the highest levels of the first half of 2021, the quotation has moved sideways with a slight increase of 6.8% during the last year. After that, the price has undergone a decrease of 19.8%, thus setting once again on those levels observed at the beginning of 2021;
- Stocks: copper has undergone a shortage of material for years; suffice it to say that volumes have considerably lowered starting from 2019 (-62.8%).
This trend in copper price could forecast an economic slowdown or a general recession. Above all, if we consider that both price and volumes have decreased.
Keep up to date with the price of copper: visit the page dedicated to the closing prices of the main non ferrous metals listed at the LME on our website.
Nickel - Weekly averages (US$/MT)
The current Ukraine-Russia war influences the trend of this metal since Russia is the leading worldwide producer of nickel.
- Price: between January and February 2022, the quotation reached a high level (+127.2%), followed later by a significant correction (-50.3%). Furthermore, it may exceed those minimum levels of the beginning of 2022 while reaching the values observed in 2021;
- Stocks: volumes have decreased by 74.6% in only one-year-long period. This trend has negatively impacted all those manufacturing processes deriving from nickel, such as stainless-steel production.
Keep up to date with the price of nickel: visit the page dedicated to the closing prices of the main non ferrous metals listed at the LME on our website.
Zinc - Weekly averages (US$/MT)
The situation for Zinc is similar, even though not so accentuated:
- Price: a downward swing in zinc price has taken place. After an increase of 25.5%, the price has decreased then (-26%), thus reaching the levels of the second half of 2021;
- Stocks: the situation for the volumes of zinc is similar to that of the other non ferrous metals, considering that they have undergone a significant fall (-72.2%).
Keep up to date with the price of zinc: visit the page dedicated to the closing prices of the main non ferrous metals listed at the LME on our website.
Lead - Weekly averages (US$/MT)
Let’s see the scenario for the lead:
- Price: after the slight increase which has occurred in the first months of 2022, the price has lowered (-20%). Even though the quotation may decrease further, it has already reached those levels observed at the end of 2020;
- Stocks: lead volumes have decreased significantly (-71%), thus highlighting the existence of a thin market.
We should consider that the lead request is subject to the transition toward sustainable mobility and the consequent progressive interruption of traditional vehicle batteries. Thus, the demand for lead will undergo a reduction which will cause a longer phase of price decrease.
Keep up to date with the price of lead: visit the page dedicated to the closing prices of the main non ferrous metals listed at the LME on our website.
Tin - Weekly averages (US$/MT)
Tin is the non ferrous metal with the most significant trend since it has seen record levels:
- Price: in the first months of 2022, an increase of 16.5% has occurred, followed by a drastic fall in price (-40.8%). This movement suggests a possible subsequent variation in the price trend or at least a settlement;
- Stocks: tin sets a record also concerning volumes. It reached the most extraordinary and highest levels both in 2020 and 2021. Then, compared to the other non ferrous metals, it faced the most significant decrease (-91.2%). This lowering trend ended in the last months of 2021 with a change of course, thus influencing the price trend.
Keep up to date with the price of tin: visit the page dedicated to the closing prices of the main non ferrous metals listed at the LME on our website.
Source: Confindustria Brescia - "Scenari & Tendenze", 5th July 2022.