SCENARI & TENDENZE, 11TH DECEMBER 2018: MAIN NON-FERROUS METALS TREND

Current market situation, presented during the last meeting of “Scenari & Tendenze”, stressed some interesting dynamics, which should be analysed.

The analysis of non-ferrous metals trend shows how quoted metals average had a turning point in 2016. After this, there were two years of increase until June with a total recovery of 68%. Then the average decreased drastically more than 18%. With metals prices increase there was a logical decrease of stocks.

The comparison between non-ferrous metals and all metals trend shows full concordance. In fact, metals value increased for 3 years, with a small decrease in the last 3 months.

Furthermore, an anomalous situation is occurring in current market and it must be urgently reported. In fact, after the end of metals value reduction lasted five years, the total stocks amount decreased of 61%. Instead the fact that this stock reduction went on also in the last months, prices fell.

The situation is such that metals value is decreasing more and more, but there are perspectives of a good increase in the future, if we consider that there should be a slowdown of China as well. 

Here below you can find a short detail of main non-ferrous metals trends:

ALUMINIUM: 
Weekly averages indicate a growth of more than 70%, with a decrease of 22% in May. A short recovery period can be noticed now. Simultaneous volumes fall of about 65% justifies this recovery as well.
This shows that this fall is not related to speculation, but to a real request for metal physical collection.
According to forecasts, aluminium annual average will face a moderate growth. The demand will be constant and stock will be restored. Therefore, this metal will constantly grow over the years.

COPPER: 
Weekly average indicate a growth of about 65%, with a decrease of 18%. A short recovery period can be noticed now. A decrease can be noticed in this case as well, even though there is a different stock variability. In the short term, it will be possible to notice a recovery as well.
Studies forecast a growth of copper annual average in next years, which will be slower if compared to aluminium. This suggests that this increase will continue also in the future.

NICKEL:
According to Nickel weekly average, this metal had a growth of 112% until June and then a decrease of 30%, which is higher if compared to other main metals loss of about 20/22%. Now there is a short recovery, but the loss of 30% took place with a stock decrease of 50%.
An “oversold” condition occurred and caused a price reaction. 
If we consider annual average, prices growth is higher in this case if compared to copper and aluminium increase. This is related to future request increase for electric mobility battery. This new request could be added to traditional demand for stainless steel and support quotations for this metal.

Source: Associazione Industriale Bresciana (AIB) - "Scenari & Tendenze", 11th December 2018