SCENARI & TENDENZE: MAIN METALS TREND AT MARCH 19TH 2019
During its 28th meeting, the circumstances observatory “Scenari & Tendenze” provided once again an interesting overview of main non-ferrous metals trends.
In general, the trend of all non-ferrous metals average quoted on the LME finished its decrease at the beginning of 2016. This resulted in a significant recovery, which ended in the first six months of 2018. Subsequently, there was a correction period of the trend until the last two months of 2018. As shown in the chart, in the first two months of 2019 there was actually a reaction that is now already over.
It is also important to report a large decrease of total stocks amount (abt. 80%), which is related to real interest in material physical collection and no more to strong speculation, as occurred some years ago.
Here below there is a short recap of main non-ferrous metals trend, analysed on weekly averages basis ($/TON):
Aluminium:
The trend of this metal follows the general situation already described. In particular, in the chart it is possible to notice how the increasing trend at the beginning of 2019 is not so strong (+2,3%) if compared to other non-ferrous metals trends. The increase that can be observed has a low potential. In this case, a significant stock fall may be noticed as well (-59%).
If we consider annual average, we can expect that the price of this metal will be around 2.150 ($/TON) level in 2019.
Copper:
Copper trend is very similar to general circumstances: in the first two months of 2019 metal trend showed a reaction (+10,1%). As generally observed, this reaction has already finished, causing in this way the beginning of a corrective stage. Stock decrease is detectable also for this material (-43,2%), instead the fact that it is lower than aluminium stock fall.
According to forecasts, copper annual average price in 2019 should be approximately 6.600 ($/TON).
Nickel:
The chart clearly shows that nickel-increasing trend stopped at the middle of 2018. This situation was followed by a decrease until the beginning of 2019 with a subsequent growth (+21,6%), which is one of the most considerable among the analysed metals. In this case as well, metal trend is undergoing a corrective stage. Furthermore, when this phase will end, forecasts expect that there will be a more probable increase if compared to other non-ferrous metals trends. Concerning stock situation, it is possible to observe a fall for Nickel as well (-56%) that justifies recovery forecasts.
According to studies, the expected annual average of nickel price will reach a level of 14.800 ($/TON) in 2019. This one cannot be compared too high levels reached in the past. Anyway, it tends toward increase.
Zinc:
It is possible to notice a recovery of more than 20% (+20,6%). In this case, the reaction began in the second part of 2018, earlier if compared to other non-ferrous metals trends. This increase will potentially go on. Stock decrease is the most significant among analysed metals. In fact, Zinc stock reached a fall of -86,6%, justifying in this way increase forecasts.
If we observe chart data, Zinc price annual average should reach 2.760 ($/TON) in 2019.
Source: Associazione Industriale Bresciana (AIB) - "Scenari & Tendenze", March 19th, 2019
