SCENARI & TENDENZE, 5TH NOVEMBER 2019: MAIN NON-FERROUS METALS’ TREND

As usual, the 30th meeting of the circumstances observatory “Scenari & Tendenze” (lit. Scenarios & Trends) provided an interesting overview of main non-ferrous metals’ trend, considering and analysing the global economic scenario as well. 

Here below is a short recap of main non-ferrous metals’ trend up to 5th November 2019, according to weekly averages (US$/TON):

Aluminium:
The trend of this metal was the only one in systematic reduction (-24,8%). The chart clearly shows how aluminium stocks are aligned with the average stock decrease (-67%). It must be noted that this stock fall should have supported prices, but this was not the case: aluminium prices have never been so low in the last three years. 
If compared to the all non-ferrous metals’ average, aluminium trend is certainly depressed.
Considering annual average, we can expect that the price of this metal will swing around 1.750 (US$/TON) in 2020.

Copper:
After the strong reaction, which ended at the beginning of 2018, a decreasing stage can be observed for copper, even though not as significant as the aluminium reduction. Nevertheless, copper trends seem to be stabilising. As clearly shown in the chart, copper stocks have been fleshed out (+15%), as opposed to other non-ferrous metals. Therefore, stocks have even increased if compared to their quantity at the beginning of 2016, even if copper trend is representative of a global economic scenario, which is fragile at this stage but with a growth potential.
Thus, copper trend is clearly still below general circumstances, but it has a higher stability if compared to aluminium performance.
According to forecasts, copper annual average price in 2020 should be approximately 5.800 (US$/TON). 

Nickel:
This metal shows an exceptional breakthrough, if we consider that, on the other hand, other non-ferrous metals went through a quick fall during the first months of 2018. In fact, the peak reached by nickel at the middle of 2018 was followed by a strong decrease with a subsequent extraordinary growth of abt. +68,7% if compared to the minimum levels of the end of 2018. Furthermore, the chart highlights how the following correction has already stopped with a subsequent metal reaction. It should also be considered that stocks lost abt. -81% from those minimum levels and are still reducing quickly. The anxiety of nickel supply pushed its price to extraordinary peaks in a stainless market that does not show high level of absorption. This anxiety is surely due to forecasts of a higher use of nickel in the battery industry for electric cars. This current strong supply action is actually confirmed by the fact that stocks decreased significantly.
Thus, nickel trend went far beyond the average performance of non-ferrous metals. 
Therefore, in 2020 the annual average of nickel price is expected to reach a level of 16.750 (US$/TON). 

Zinc:
In this case it is possible to notice a trend, similar to the copper’s performance, but with significant fluctuations.
This emerges also compared to the non-ferrous average trend. The chart shows an increasing phase, which is supported by the fact that zinc holds the record of stock fall (-87,5%). This strong stock decrease clearly represents a factor that supports prices level. 
Zinc annual average price is expected to reach 2.650 (US$/TON) next year.

Source: Associazione Industriale Bresciana (AIB) - "Scenari & Tendenze", 5th November 2019

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